Preflop all-in matchups
The hand-against-hand spots that come up every session, with the exact all-in equity: not sampled, but counted over all 1,712,304 possible boards for every way the suits can fall. Each page breaks the number down by suit pattern and by the hand each side wins with, and shows when calling as the underdog is right.
What the numbers say
- The “coin flip” is not one number. Across the 19 pair-vs-two-overcards matchups here the pair's equity runs from 46.2% (JTs vs 22) to 57.0% (AJo vs TT), and is the favourite in 18 of them.
- Suits are worth points: AKo vs QQ is 43.2% for the ace-king, AKs vs QQ is 46.0%, a gain of 2.8 points from the flush.
- Pair against pair is close to fixed: the bigger pair has between 80.4% and 82.2% equity in every one listed, whatever the ranks.
- The closest matchup here is AKs vs 22 at 49.9%; the most lopsided is AA vs AKo at 93.2%.
- Equities count a split pot as half a win for each side, so the two columns always add to 100%. The split column is the share of boards that chop.
A pair against two overcards
The race people call a coin flip. The pair is ahead now and stays ahead unless the board pairs one of the two higher cards or makes a straight or flush for them. It is close, but it is rarely exactly 50/50, and which side is favoured depends on how much straight and flush potential the unpaired hand has.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKo vs QQ | 43.2% | 0.4% | 56.8% | |
| AKs vs QQ | 46.0% | 0.4% | 54.0% | |
| AKo vs JJ | 43.1% | 0.4% | 56.9% | |
| AKs vs JJ | 46.0% | 0.4% | 54.0% | |
| AKo vs TT | 43.1% | 0.4% | 56.9% | |
| AKo vs 99 | 44.7% | 0.4% | 55.3% | |
| AKo vs 88 | 44.8% | 0.4% | 55.2% | |
| AKo vs 55 | 45.4% | 0.5% | 54.6% | |
| AKo vs 22 | 47.4% | 0.6% | 52.6% | |
| AKs vs 22 | 49.9% | 0.6% | 50.1% | |
| AQo vs JJ | 43.1% | 0.4% | 56.9% | |
| AQs vs JJ | 45.9% | 0.4% | 54.1% | |
| AQo vs TT | 43.1% | 0.4% | 56.9% | |
| AJo vs TT | 43.0% | 0.4% | 57.0% | |
| KQo vs JJ | 43.5% | 0.4% | 56.5% | |
| KQs vs TT | 46.3% | 0.4% | 53.7% | |
| JTs vs 99 | 48.8% | 0.4% | 51.2% | |
| JTs vs 22 | 53.8% | 1.4% | 46.2% | |
| 76s vs 55 | 49.4% | 1.5% | 50.6% |
Pair against pair
The smaller pair is drawing almost entirely to the two cards that make it a set. How far apart the ranks are barely matters. The small differences between these come from straights: which ones each pair can use, and which ones the other pair blocks.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA vs KK | 81.9% | 0.5% | 18.1% | |
| AA vs QQ | 81.5% | 0.4% | 18.5% | |
| AA vs JJ | 81.1% | 0.4% | 18.9% | |
| KK vs QQ | 81.9% | 0.5% | 18.1% | |
| KK vs JJ | 81.5% | 0.4% | 18.5% | |
| QQ vs JJ | 82.0% | 0.4% | 18.0% | |
| JJ vs TT | 82.0% | 0.4% | 18.0% | |
| TT vs 99 | 82.0% | 0.5% | 18.0% | |
| 88 vs 77 | 81.8% | 0.9% | 18.2% | |
| AA vs 22 | 82.2% | 0.5% | 17.8% | |
| KK vs 22 | 81.8% | 0.5% | 18.2% | |
| 33 vs 22 | 80.4% | 5.0% | 19.6% |
A pair against one higher and one lower card
Only the higher card beats the pair by pairing. The lower card has to make two pair, trips or better to get there, so this is closer to pair against pair than to a coin flip.
A pair against two lower cards
Pairing one card is not enough for the underdog: it needs two pair, trips, a straight or a flush. That is why suited connectors do better here than bigger unconnected cards. They lose more often to the pair by high cards, but straights and flushes are where their wins come from.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA vs KQs | 82.9% | 0.4% | 17.1% | |
| AA vs JTs | 78.8% | 0.4% | 21.2% | |
| AA vs 87s | 77.5% | 0.3% | 22.5% | |
| AA vs 76s | 77.5% | 0.4% | 22.5% | |
| AA vs 54s | 78.9% | 0.5% | 21.1% | |
| AA vs 72o | 88.2% | 0.4% | 11.8% | |
| KK vs QJs | 82.3% | 0.4% | 17.7% | |
| KK vs 98s | 78.3% | 0.4% | 21.7% | |
| QQ vs JTs | 81.7% | 0.4% | 18.3% | |
| JJ vs T9s | 81.7% | 0.4% | 18.3% |
Two hands sharing a card: domination
When both hands hold the same rank, pairing it helps both of them and the other card decides it. The dominated hand needs its lower card to pair, so it wins far less often than two unrelated cards would.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKo vs AQo | 74.4% | 4.7% | 25.6% | |
| AKs vs AQs | 71.3% | 4.2% | 28.7% | |
| AKo vs AJo | 74.1% | 4.7% | 25.9% | |
| AKo vs A5s | 68.5% | 4.5% | 31.5% | |
| AKo vs KQo | 74.8% | 1.2% | 25.2% | |
| AKo vs KJs | 70.1% | 1.1% | 29.9% | |
| AQo vs AJo | 73.9% | 5.8% | 26.1% | |
| AJo vs ATo | 72.8% | 8.0% | 27.2% | |
| AQo vs KQo | 74.5% | 1.1% | 25.5% | |
| KQo vs KJo | 74.0% | 5.6% | 26.0% | |
| ATo vs KTo | 74.2% | 2.0% | 25.8% |
Two higher cards against two lower cards
Neither hand is made. The higher cards win most boards where nothing happens, or where both hands pair one card. The lower hand wins when it pairs and the higher one does not, or makes a straight or flush, so suited and connected lower cards do noticeably better than their ranks suggest.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKo vs QJs | 61.1% | 0.5% | 38.9% | |
| AKo vs JTs | 59.5% | 0.5% | 40.5% | |
| AKo vs T9s | 59.5% | 0.4% | 40.5% | |
| AKo vs 87s | 58.8% | 0.4% | 41.2% | |
| AKo vs 72o | 67.6% | 0.5% | 32.4% | |
| AQo vs JTs | 59.7% | 0.5% | 40.3% | |
| KQo vs JTs | 60.9% | 0.7% | 39.1% | |
| KQs vs 98s | 62.9% | 0.7% | 37.1% |
Interleaved ranks
One hand has the highest card, the other has the two middle ones. The high card wins most boards where nothing pairs, but either middle card pairing beats it unless the high card pairs too, which keeps these closer than the top card suggests.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A5s vs KQo | 60.3% | 0.5% | 39.7% | |
| A2o vs KQs | 54.4% | 0.6% | 45.6% | |
| AJo vs KQo | 59.8% | 0.5% | 40.2% | |
| AQo vs KJs | 59.2% | 0.5% | 40.8% |
Same ranks, suited against offsuit
Both hands make the same pairs and straights, so most boards split. The suited hand needs three more of its suit for a flush; the offsuit hand needs four more of one of its two suits, which is much rarer, so the suited hand is the one freerolling.
| Matchup | First hand | Split | Second hand | Equity bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs vs AKo | 52.5% | 90.7% | 47.5% |
- For every matchup, each distinct suit pattern was enumerated over all 1,712,304 boards by the same Rust/WebAssembly engine the trainer runs, then weighted by how many of the possible deals share that pattern. No Monte Carlo, no sampling error.
- Every result is cross-checked against the site's separate Monte Carlo matrix (the one behind the starting-hand pages); the build refuses to publish a matchup that disagrees by more than 0.4 points.
- All-in preflop equity is what happens when no more decisions are left. With betting to come, position and stack depth matter, and the push/fold charts and the spot calculator are the better tools.
- Raw data: matchups.json, one file per matchup under
/data/matchups/, built bytools/build-matchups.mjs.