// spot check · river
Overpair facing a river overbet: call or fold?
Villain bets 30 bb into 20 bb on the river.
Your hand
Q♠Q♦Board
J♣8♥2♠5♦3♣Facing
30 bb into 20 bbVillain range: custom · 37 of 58 combos live
JJ,88,55,33,22,J8s,A4s,64s,T9s,KQs,KTs,QTsA polarised range: sets, top two pair, both straights (A4s and 64s) for value, and missed straight draws as bluffs.
Fold−4.05 bb for calling
32.4% equity against 37.5% needed
What it shows
A 1.5× overbet needs 37.5% and the bluffs here are under a third of the range. Queens beat every bluff and no value hand, so the overpair is only as good as the bluff count.
The working
- Range. The stated range is 58 combos. 21 of them use a card you can see (your hand or the board), which leaves 37.
- Equity. You win 32.4% and chop 0.0%, so equity is 32.4% + 0.0% ÷ 2 = 32.4%. The river is dealt, so every combo is evaluated once and the number is exact.
- Price. Calling risks the bet to win the pot plus the bet, so break-even is bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet) = 30 ÷ (20 + 2 × 30) = 37.5%.
- EV. equity × (pot + bet) − (1 − equity) × bet = 0.3243 × 50 − 0.6757 × 30 = −4.05 bb. Folding is 0, so that is the whole difference between the two options.
Where the equity comes from
Your equity against every hand class in the range, with how much of the range each one is. The total above is these rows averaged by combo count.
| Villain | Combos | Share | Win | Chop | Your equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 3 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 33 | 3 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 55 | 3 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 64s | 4 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 88 | 3 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| A4s | 4 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J8s | 2 | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ | 3 | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| KQs | 2 | 5.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| KTs | 4 | 10.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| QTs | 2 | 5.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| T9s | 4 | 10.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
// settle the thread
The link encodes the whole spot. Anyone who opens it gets these numbers, recomputed in their own browser.
Disagree with the range, or want to see where the answer flips? Open this spot in the calculator and change anything: cards, bet size, villain range.
Change the numbers →// what is computed, and what is assumed
- Computed: card removal, equity (exact on the river, sampled with fixed seeds before it), the break-even price, and the EV of calling. Same engine, same seeds, same numbers for anyone who opens the link.
- Assumed: the range. Villain bets every combo in it, all equally often. The four archetype ranges are our assumptions and are printed in full; a pasted range is yours.
- Assumed: this is the last bet. Before the river, the EV counts you as seeing every remaining card with no more money going in. That is exact when the bet is all-in (every worked example below is) and optimistic otherwise, because it ignores implied odds and reverse implied odds alike.
- Pot is everything in the middle except the bet you face; bet is what it costs you to call. Range notation: AA, AKs, AKo, AK (both), TT+, ATs+, 22-55, A2s-A5s. No weights or single combos.
More worked spots
Flop, facing an all-in
- Flush draw vs an overpair, all-in on the flop: call or fold?J♥T♥ on 9♥5♥2♣ against QQ+, pot-size shove.Call · 36.2% vs 33.3% · +0.87 bb
- Nut flush draw vs top pair, all-in on the flopA♥4♥ on K♥8♥2♣ against top pair or better.Call · 41.3% vs 33.3% · +2.38 bb
- Open-ended straight draw vs top pair, pot-size all-in on the flop9♣8♣ on T♠7♦2♥: eight outs twice, against top pair.Fold · 31.7% vs 33.3% · −0.49 bb
- Gutshot on the flop facing a half-pot all-in6♠5♠ on 9♣8♦2♥: four outs to a straight.Fold · 19.6% vs 25.0% · −1.09 bb
- Combo draw vs top pair: are you the favourite all-in on the flop?9♥8♥ on T♥7♥2♣: flush draw plus open-ender.Call · 54.6% vs 33.3% · +6.38 bb
- Two overcards vs a pair, pot-size all-in on the flopA♥K♦ on 9♣6♠2♥, no draw: six outs.Fold · 18.3% vs 33.3% · −4.51 bb
- Pocket aces on a monotone flop facing an overbet all-inA♠A♦ on K♥8♥4♥ without the ace of hearts.Call · 59.5% vs 42.9% · +11.65 bb
- Bottom two pair against a range full of draws, all-in on the flop9♠5♠ on 9♥5♦2♥ facing a 2× pot shove.Call · 75.2% vs 40.0% · +17.60 bb
Turn, facing an all-in
- Flush draw on the turn facing a pot-size all-inSame draw, one card later: J♥T♥ on 9♥5♥2♣3♦.Fold · 19.3% vs 33.3% · −12.65 bb
- Is a flush draw ever a call on the turn? Facing a third-pot all-inJ♥T♥ on the turn, villain all-in for a third of the pot.Fold · 19.3% vs 20.0% · −0.36 bb
- Open-ended straight draw on the turn facing a pot-size all-in9♣8♣ on T♠7♦2♥3♠ with one card to come.Fold · 17.8% vs 33.3% · −9.34 bb
- Middle pair against a maniac’s turn all-in7♠6♠ on 9♥7♣2♦K♥ against a range that bets everything.Call · 49.3% vs 30.0% · +5.80 bb
- Ace-king with a gutshot on the turn facing an all-inA♥K♦ on Q♣J♠4♦2♥: gutshot plus overcards.Fold · 15.3% vs 28.6% · −4.66 bb
River bets
- Calling the maniac’s river bet with ace highA♣Q♦ on J♠8♥5♠3♣2♦, half-pot bet.Call · 42.0% vs 25.0% · +5.45 bb
- The same ace-high river call against a balanced regularA♣Q♦ again, now against The Reg’s range.Call · 27.8% vs 25.0% · +0.90 bb
- Top pair, weak kicker, river bet: how many bluffs does villain need?K♣4♦ on K♥9♠5♣2♦7♥, 15 bb into 20 bb.Break-even · 30.0% vs 30.0% · 0.00 bb