Count the cards you will actually see
Flush draw pot odds: flop versus turn
A draw with two cards to come has a different price from the same draw with one card left. In this exercise the turn bet is all-in: calling buys exactly one river card, with no future betting to rescue a bad price.
How to approach the decision
- Find the final pot after your call: the original pot plus both matched bets.
- Divide the call amount by that final pot to find the required equity.
- Compare that price with equity against the stated overpair range. Outs alone do not identify every way a hand can win.
Your practice hand
Villain shoves 30 bb into a 30 bb pot on the turn.
Your hand
J♥T♥Board
9♥5♥2♣3♦Facing
30 bb into 30 bbVillain range: custom · 18 of 18 combos live
QQ+Villain has QQ, KK or AA, exactly as on the flop.
Practise this exact hand →Show the worked answer
With one card to come the flush draw has roughly nine outs from 44 unseen cards, about a fifth of the equity it needs. The flop call was right and this one is badly wrong: the draw did not change, the number of cards left did.
The working
- Range. The stated range is 18 combos. None of them use a card you can see, so all 18 are live.
- Equity. You win 19.3% and chop 0.0%, so equity is 19.3% + 0.0% ÷ 2 = 19.3%. Each hand class gets 20,000 sampled runouts with its own fixed seed, weighted by live combos. Sampling error is about ±0.16 points (one standard error).
- Price. Calling risks the bet to win the pot plus the bet, so break-even is bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet) = 30 ÷ (30 + 2 × 30) = 33.3%.
- EV. equity × (pot + bet) − (1 − equity) × bet = 0.1928 × 60 − 0.8073 × 30 = −12.65 bb. Folding is 0, so that is the whole difference between the two options.